Why Arab States Are Terrified of a US War with Iran
The Growing Tensions
As the possibility of a US attack on Iran looms larger, the nations of the Persian Gulf, which host US military bases and anxiously await the potential fallout, are terrified of escalation. The US has mobilized an impressive force, with at least 108 air tankers in or en route to the CENTCOM theater, and military officials suggest strikes could happen at any moment. This level of preparation indicates that the operation may be more sustained and long-lasting than the one-off strike on Iranian nuclear sites last June.
The Regional Context
The regional observers sense an impending doom. With the scale of the build-up, there's no way for President Trump to back out without facing a political crisis. However, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and Iraq see only risk. While they may want to see the Iranian leadership weakened, they are more concerned about the potential chaos and the rise of more radical elements.
Diplomatic Efforts
Since January, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman, alongside Turkey and Egypt, have been engaged in intense diplomacy to pull Washington and Tehran back from the brink. This is not out of sympathy for Tehran, but because they realize they would be on the front lines of any Iranian retaliation and the potential consequences of a regime collapse.
The Role of Israel
As regional analyst Galip Dalay notes, in addition to the economic and security destabilization, Israel, as a rising hegemon in the region, greatly benefits from the regime's collapse.
The Threat to the Gulf
The danger to the Gulf is multidimensional. There is the immediate physical threat, with Iran repeatedly signaling that US bases in the region are legitimate targets. The attack on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar remains a terrifying memory for Gulf leaders. Any new, sustained campaign could see facilities in Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain come under fire from Iranian missiles or drone barrages.
Economic and Political Risks
The Gulf states are trying to diversify their economies and attract foreign investment and talent. A threat of regional war would send capital and people fleeing, potentially leading to a refugee crisis. The Iranian port of Bandar Abbas is a short boat ride from Dubai, and a conflict could send thousands of displaced people across the water to the UAE.
The Strait of Hormuz
There's also the risk of an economic nightmare. Iranian officials have warned that all options are on the table, including blocking or mining the Strait of Hormuz. While a full closure is unlikely, the IRGC Navy is preparing a 'smart' closure, targeting Western-linked tankers while allowing Chinese oil purchases to pass, similar to the Yemeni Houthi rebel style.
The Impact on Iran
Ultimately, there's a heightened risk of a US military attack ensuring Iran discards its official nuclear doctrine and opts for weaponization, the very outcome the war is ostensibly designed to prevent. Short of a full occupation, there are no material obstacles for a dash for a bomb given Iran's know-how.
The Way Forward
The Trump administration's approach has been perplexing, even as Iran has offered concessions. Despite the obvious risks, the US seems to be seeking Tehran's capitulation across the board. America's Gulf allies are not cheering for war; they are desperately trying to prevent it. Trump would be wise to heed their advice for the sake of his own and America's interests.
